{"id":6942,"date":"2026-03-09T10:43:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T14:43:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e4%b8%8d%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T10:43:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T14:43:13","slug":"%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e4%b8%8d%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e4%b8%8d%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a"},"content":{"rendered":"

15-25%.<\/h2>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458 Marcus \u5728\u9879\u76ee\u542f\u52a8\u7b2c\u4e00\u5929\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u4e0d\u662f\u67d0\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u80dc\u7387\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ed6\u5bf9”\u7528 AI \u76f4\u63a5\u9884\u6d4b\u5916\u6c47\u8d70\u52bf\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u4e0a\u9650”\u7684\u8bda\u5b9e\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56e2\u961f\u62ff\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4f1a\u505a\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\uff1a\u653e\u5f03\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5047\u88c5\u6ca1\u770b\u89c1\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u6761\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u56e2\u961f<\/h2>\n

\u5148\u4ea4\u4ee3\u80cc\u666f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u4f4d\u4e8e\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u7684\u521b\u610f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u6280\u672f\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4e3b\u4e1a\u662f\u54c1\u724c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u7f51\u7ad9\u5f00\u53d1\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u8425\u9500\u3002\u56e2\u961f\u67b6\u6784\u5305\u62ec\u9879\u76ee\u7ba1\u7406\u90e8\u3001\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5f00\u53d1\u90e8\u3001\u8bbe\u8ba1\u90e8\u3001\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u90e8\u548c\u6587\u6848\u7ec4\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u6765\u81ea\u4f20\u7edf\u91cf\u5316\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u6709\u91d1\u878d PhD\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5728\u6295\u884c\u5750\u8fc7 trading desk\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u8bdd\u8bf4\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u8bfb\u8005\u5173\u6389\u4e86\u9875\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7559\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8bf7\u7ee7\u7eed\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u8d77\u56e0\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u9879\u76ee\u7ecf\u7406\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6211\uff09\u5728\u5341\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u8bfb\u8fc7\u4e00\u4f4d\u8d44\u6df1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u9676\u51ac\uff0c\u9676\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u804c\u4e8e\u4e00\u5bb6\u6b27\u6d32\u6295\u8d44\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u62c5\u4efb\u4e9a\u592a\u533a\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u4ece2005\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u7f51\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5199\u52302024\u5e74\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u4e0a\u5343\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8986\u76d6\u4e862008\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u3001\u6b27\u503a\u5371\u673a\u3001\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8 QE\u3001COVID\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5168\u7403\u901a\u80c0\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u70b9\uff1a\u4e0d\u8ffd\u70ed\u70b9\uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u5468\u671f\u3002\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u6050\u614c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4ed6\u8bf4”\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u672b\u65e5\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5c3e\u58f0”\uff1b\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u72c2\u6b22\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4ed6\u8bf4”\u522b\u6025\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6765”\u3002\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u95f4\u4e0d\u662f\u6b21\u6b21\u90fd\u5bf9\uff0c\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u516c\u5f00\u627f\u8ba4\u8fc7\u5224\u65ad\u5931\u8bef\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u7387\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u884c\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u6709\u4e00\u5957\u53ef\u590d\u73b0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u6700\u8ba9\u6211\u656c\u4f69\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u575a\u6301\u3002\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u5468\u90fd\u5728\u5199\uff0c\u4ece\u672a\u4e2d\u65ad\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u7bc7\u90fd\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u7e41\u5fd9\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e4b\u4f59\uff0c\u82b1\u65f6\u95f4\u5750\u4e0b\u6765\u8ba4\u771f\u601d\u8003\u540e\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u624b\u5199\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u8d44\u6df1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u957f\u5e74\u7d2f\u6708\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u6c89\u6dc0\u3002\u8fd9\u4efd\u6177\u6168\u548c\u575a\u6301\uff0c\u505a\u8fc7\u5185\u5bb9\u521b\u4f5c\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u6709\u591a\u73cd\u8d35\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u6734\u7d20\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u6211\u8111\u5b50\u91cc\u76d8\u65cb\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u80fd\u8bb0\u4f4f\u8fd9\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u91cc\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6a21\u5f0f\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\u53d1\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u53ef\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u662f”\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8dcc”\u3002\u662f”\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bc6\u522b\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u7ad9\u5728\u54ea\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u54ea\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e”\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

15% \u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h2>\n

\u56de\u5230\u90a3\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n

Marcus \u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u5199\u4e86\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e24\u5343\u5b57\uff0c\u628a\u9879\u76ee\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u73af\u8282\u90fd\u62c6\u5f00\u6765\u6253\u4e86\u5206\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u67b6\u6784 90% \u53ef\u884c\u3002\u81ea\u52a8\u4ea4\u6613\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7f16\u5199 85-90% \u53ef\u884c\u3002\u4f46\u5230\u4e86\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\uff0c”\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u8d27\u5e01\u8d70\u52bf”\uff0c\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u5ba2\u6c14\uff1a<\/p>\n

“\u5916\u6c47\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5f31\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u7eaf\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\u5f88\u96be\u7a33\u5b9a\u8d85\u8fc7 55-60%\u3002\u4e13\u4e1a\u91cf\u5316\u57fa\u91d1\u7528\u9876\u7ea7\u786c\u4ef6\u52a0\u4e13\u95e8\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684 ML \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709 10-30%\u3002”<\/p>\n

\u7136\u540e\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u90a3\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff1a15-25%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u4ed6\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u672b\u5c3e\u8865\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u8bdd\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u8bdd\u540e\u6765\u6210\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff1a<\/p>\n

“\u597d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u66b4\u5bcc\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u907f\u514d\u56e0\u4e3a\u51b2\u52a8\u800c\u5927\u4e8f\u3002\u5173\u952e\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u4e0d\u51c6\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5f53\u9884\u6d4b\u6b63\u786e\u65f6\u4f60\u80fd\u8d5a\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u5f53\u9884\u6d4b\u9519\u8bef\u65f6\u4f60\u80fd\u5c11\u4e8f\u591a\u5c11\u3002”<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u65e0\u6570\u91cf\u5316\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8fc7\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u80dc\u7387\u53ea\u662f\u7b49\u5f0f\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8d54\u7387\u548c\u98ce\u63a7\u624d\u51b3\u5b9a\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u80dc\u7387 55% \u4f46\u98ce\u9669\u6536\u76ca\u6bd4 1:2 \u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u8dd1\u4e0b\u6765\u4f1a\u76c8\u5229\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u80dc\u7387 70% \u4f46\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e8f\u635f\u5403\u6389\u4e94\u6b21\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u8dd1\u4e0b\u6765\u4f1a\u7834\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u662f”\u600e\u4e48\u628a 15% \u63d0\u9ad8\u5230 80%”\uff0c\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\u662f\u6b7b\u8def\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728 15% \u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u53d8\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff1f<\/p>\n

\n

\u6362\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898<\/h2>\n

\u601d\u8def\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u5173\u4e8e\u77e5\u8bc6\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u65f6\u56e2\u961f\u5df2\u7ecf\u6536\u96c6\u4e86\u9676\u535a\u58eb\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4f1f\u535a\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u77e5\u8bc6\u7ba1\u7406\u67b6\u6784\uff1a\u628a\u65e7\u6587\u7ae0\u5b9a\u671f\u538b\u7f29\u5f52\u6863\uff0c\u7ed9\u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\u817e\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u542c\u5b8c\u4e4b\u540e\u8bf4\u4e86\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\u3002\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u8fde\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u90fd\u6ca1\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u6709\u591a\u91cd\u8981\uff1a<\/p>\n

“\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4e0d\u884c\u3002\u65e7\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u6863\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u3002”<\/p>\n

\"-\"\"-\"<\/div>\n

\u5341\u5230\u5341\u4e8c\u5e74\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u5faa\u73af\u30022008\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u57282020\u5e74\u4ee5\u53d8\u4f53\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u91cd\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u30021997\u5e74\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u57282022\u5e74\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u9690\u7ea6\u53ef\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eba\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u53cd\u590d\u6389\u8fdb\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5751\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b28\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5fd8\u4e86\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u6389\u8fdb\u53bb\u65f6\u7684\u6837\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u9676\u535a\u58eb\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6070\u6070\u662f\u5bf9\u6297\u9057\u5fd8\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u4ed6\u5e2e\u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6765\u9f99\u53bb\u8109\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u8d77\u56e0\u548c\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bb0\u5f55\u538b\u7f29\u5f52\u6863\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u7b49\u4e8e\u4e3b\u52a8\u4e22\u6389\u4e86\u4ed6\u82b1\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u5e2e\u6240\u6709\u8bfb\u8005\u4fdd\u5b58\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u8bb0\u5fc6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba4\u77e5\u76f4\u63a5\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u6309\u65f6\u95f4\u5f52\u6863\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6309\u5468\u671f\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08Cycle Patterns\uff09\u5f52\u6863\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u662f\uff1a”2008\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u96f7\u66fc\u5144\u5f1f\u5012\u95ed\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u66b4\u8dcc”\u5f52\u6863\u5230”2008\u5e74\u7b14\u8bb0”\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u662f\uff1a\u4ece2008\u5e74\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u63d0\u70bc\u51fa”\u4fe1\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u6a21\u5f0f”\u3002\u5305\u542b\u89e6\u53d1\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u540c\u4e1a\u62c6\u501f\u5229\u7387\u98d9\u5347\u3001\u4fe1\u7528\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e92\u6362\u4ef7\u683c\u5f02\u5e38\uff09\u3001\u6f14\u8fdb\u8def\u5f84\uff08\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\u5230\u8d44\u4ea7\u629b\u552e\u5230\u592e\u884c\u6551\u5e02\u5230\u7f13\u6162\u590d\u82cf\uff09\u3001\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\uff08TED Spread, VIX, LIBOR-OIS Spread\uff09\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u6848\u4f8b\uff081997, 2008, 2020\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u9676\u535a\u58eb\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u63d0\u70bc\u51fa\u4e865\u79cd\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u4fe1\u8d37\u5371\u673a\uff08Credit Crisis\uff09<\/strong> \u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee\u6025\u5267\u6269\u5927\u3002\u5178\u578b\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f46-18\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u80c0\u5468\u671f\uff08Inflation Cycle\uff09<\/strong> CPI \u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u88ab\u8feb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u5178\u578b\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f412-36\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\uff08Policy Pivot\uff09<\/strong> \u592e\u884c\u4ece\u7d27\u7f29\u8f6c\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\u6216\u53cd\u5411\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u91cd\u7f6e\u3002\u5178\u578b\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f43-6\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5371\u673a\uff08Liquidity Crunch\uff09<\/strong> \u7279\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7a81\u7136\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u5178\u578b\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f41-3\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5730\u7f18\u51b2\u51fb\uff08Geopolitical Shock\uff09<\/strong> \u6218\u4e89\u3001\u5236\u88c1\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u5bfc\u81f4\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u5f02\u52a8\u3002\u5178\u578b\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u6570\u5929\u5230\u6570\u5468\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u7ec4\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684”\u6307\u7eb9”\u3002\u5f53\u591a\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u540c\u65f6\u6ee1\u8db3\u67d0\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u89e6\u53d1\u6761\u4ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u53d1\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1a”\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u67d0\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5339\u914d\u5ea6\u4e3a X%\u3002”<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5b9a\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c31\u50cf GPS \u4e0d\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u8be5\u5f80\u54ea\u8d70\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u73b0\u5728\u7ad9\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a”\u7c7b2008\u4fe1\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u6a21\u5f0f”\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u81f3\u5c11\u77e5\u9053\uff1a\u4e0d\u8981\u505a\u591a\u4fe1\u7528\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u52a0\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u73b0\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u6570\u636e\u4ece\u54ea\u91cc\u6765<\/h2>\n

\u5149\u6709\u6846\u67b6\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u8fd8\u5f97\u6709\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4f53\u7cfb\u5206\u6210\u4e24\u5c42\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c42\uff1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5c42\uff08Qualitative\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9676\u535a\u58eb\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u8de8\u5ea6\u4ece2005\u5e74\u52302024\u5e74\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8fd0\u8425\u603b\u76d1 Carol \u8d1f\u8d23\u8d44\u6599\u6536\u96c6\u548c\u6574\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u6536\u5f55\u4e86\u51e0\u4f4d\u8d44\u6df1\u5e02\u573a\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u7684\u4e13\u680f\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u673a\u6784\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65e5\u5e38\u5e02\u573a\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u8865\u5145\u6750\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6750\u6599\u7ecf\u8fc7\u56e2\u961f\u9010\u7bc7\u7814\u8bfb\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\u6574\u7406\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u51fa\u5468\u671f\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u91cf\u7684”\u9884\u5224-\u9a8c\u8bc1”\u5bf9\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u9676\u535a\u58eb\u5728 X \u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u5728 Y \u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6216\u8bc1\u4f2a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u82b1\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u6bcf\u8bfb\u5b8c\u4e00\u7bc7\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u53d7\u76ca\u532a\u6d45\u3002\u9676\u535a\u58eb\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u79cd\u8bfb\u4e00\u904d\u5c31\u80fd\u6d88\u5316\u7684\u5feb\u9910\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9700\u8981\u7ec6\u7ec6\u54c1\u5c1d\u7684\u8317\u8336\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u780c\u8336\u90fd\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8336\u9999\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4ed4\u7ec6\u54c1\u5473\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u6e05\u6da6\u56de\u7518\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\uff1a\u6570\u636e\u5c42\uff08Quantitative\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n

MT5 \u6570\u636e\uff1a\u4e3b\u6d41\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u548c\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u65e5\u7ebf\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u91cf\u5316\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n

FRED \u6570\u636e\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u5e93\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u6570\u5341\u4e2a\u5b8f\u89c2\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u6570\u636e\u56de\u6eaf\u81f31970\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002\u5305\u62ec\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u3001CPI\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u3001PMI\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u5229\u5dee\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

COT \u6570\u636e\uff1aCFTC \u6bcf\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u5927\u578b\u6295\u673a\u8005\u6301\u4ed3\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u673a\u6784\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u4ed3\u4f4d\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e24\u5c42\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5c42\u5b9a\u4e49”\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u73af\u5883”\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u5c42\u91cf\u5316”\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u54ea\u4e9b\u4fe1\u53f7\u6700\u6709\u6548”\u3002<\/p>\n

\"-\"\"-\"<\/div>\n
\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u51b3\u7b56<\/h2>\n

\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f00\u53d1\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u77e5\u8bc6\u84b8\u998f\uff08Knowledge Distillation\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u4f1f\u535a\u5efa\u8bae\u7528\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u4e09\u5c42\u67b6\u6784\uff1a\u6838\u5fc3\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5c42\u3001\u6eda\u52a8\u6458\u8981\u5c42\u3001\u6863\u6848\u5e93\u3002\u65e7\u77e5\u8bc6\u5b9a\u671f\u538b\u7f29\uff0c\u7ed9\u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\u817e\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u77e5\u8bc6\u7ba1\u7406\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u662f\u6807\u51c6\u505a\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5426\u51b3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7406\u7531\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u65e7\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e0d\u662f\u8fc7\u671f\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u53c2\u7167\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n

2008\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0d\u4f1a”\u8fc7\u671f”\u3002\u5b83\u4f1a\u57282020\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9762\u76ee\u91cd\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u628a2008\u5e74\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u538b\u7f29\u5f52\u6863\u4e86\uff0c\u5f532020\u5e74 COVID \u5f15\u53d1\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5371\u673a\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e0d\u51fa\u5b83\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5df2\u7ecf\u5fd8\u4e86\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u89c1\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u65f6\u7684\u6837\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e93\u4e0d\u6309\u65f6\u95f4\u5f52\u6863\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u7ec6\u8282\u90fd\u88ab\u4fdd\u7559\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6807\u6ce8\u4e86\u6a21\u5f0f\u6807\u7b7e\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u505a\u5224\u65ad\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u77ac\u95f4\u8c03\u53d62008\u5e74\u30012011\u5e74\u30012015\u5e74\u30012020\u5e74\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u8bb0\u5f55\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u53c9\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u7b49\u4e8e\u7ed9\u7cfb\u7edf\u88c5\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a”\u6c38\u4e0d\u9057\u5fd8”\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6765\u81ea\u9676\u535a\u58eb\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u4e0d\u95f4\u65ad\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4ed6\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709”\u8bb0\u5fc6”\u53ef\u8a00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u548c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u91cf\u5316\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u6839\u672c\u7684\u533a\u522b\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u8bad\u7ec3\u6a21\u578b\u53bb\u62df\u5408\u5386\u53f2\u4ef7\u683c\u66f2\u7ebf\uff08\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\u7684\u5929\u82b1\u677f\u5c31\u662f\u90a3\u4e2a15-25%\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8ba9\u7cfb\u7edf\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u5386\u53f2\u5468\u671f\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u89e6\u53d1\u4e86\u5b83\uff0c\u5b83\u600e\u4e48\u6f14\u8fdb\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7ed3\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u592a\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\uff1a\u522b\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u80cc\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n

\n
\"-\"\"-\"<\/div>\n

\u8fd8\u5dee\u4e00\u5ea7\u6865<\/h2>\n

\u5230\u6b64\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u5957\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u8bc6\u522b\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5305\u542b5\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6bcf\u79cd\u6709\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u89e6\u53d1\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u6f14\u8fdb\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5927\u91cf\u77e5\u8bc6\u6750\u6599\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6570\u5341\u4e2a\u5b8f\u89c2\u6307\u6807\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e3b\u6d41\u54c1\u79cd\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4ef7\u683c\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e2a”\u4e0d\u6309\u65f6\u95f4\u5f52\u6863”\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e93\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u4ece”\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u7ad9\u5728\u5468\u671f\u7684\u54ea\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e”\u5230”\u505a\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u51b3\u7b56”\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u5ea7\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6865\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u5ea7\u6865\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u51e0\u4e2a\u6211\u4eec\u5f53\u65f6\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u7b54\u6848\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u5b8f\u89c2\u9762\u8bf4”\u770b\u6da8”\u4f46\u6280\u672f\u9762\u8bf4”\u770b\u8dcc”\u65f6\uff0c\u542c\u8c01\u7684\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u6709\u591a\u5927\u6982\u7387\u662f\u9519\u7684\uff1f\u9519\u4e86\u4e4b\u540e\u600e\u4e48\u63a7\u5236\u635f\u5931\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u4ece Python \u540e\u7aef\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u5230 MT5 \u7ec8\u7aef\u7684\u6267\u884c\uff0c\u4e2d\u95f4\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff1f\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bb2\u6211\u4eec\u600e\u4e48\u642d\u8fd9\u5ea7\u6865\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u642d\u6865\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5dee\u70b9\u88ab\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u9a97\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u90a3\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u53eb”\u672a\u6765\u51fd\u6570”\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u505a\u8fc7\u91cf\u5316\u56de\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u5df2\u7ecf\u810a\u80cc\u53d1\u51c9\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6ca1\u505a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4f60\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u5b57\u662f\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cf\u5316\u56e2\u961f\u6700\u5bb3\u6015\u7684\u5669\u68a6\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

*\u672c\u6587\u662f\u300c\u91cf\u5316\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u53d1\u624b\u8bb0\u300d\u7cfb\u5217\u7b2c1\u7bc7\uff0c\u51718+\u7bc7\u3002\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\uff1a\u300c\u4e00\u5343\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u91cd\u91cf\uff1a\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u9676\u535a\u58eb\uff08\u4e0a\uff09\u300d*<\/p>\n

\n

\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u51e4\u51f0\u521b\u610f\u7f51\u7ad9\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5f00\u53d1\u516c\u53f8\u539f\u521b\u535a\u5ba2\uff0c\u7248\u6743\u6240\u6709\uff0c\u8bf7\u52ff\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff01 \u66f4\u591a\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u5b9e\u6218\u7f51\u7ad9\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

15-25%\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7684AI\u7cfb\u7edf\u9884\u6d4b\u6c47\u7387\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u9690\u7792\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56f4\u7ed5\u5b83\u91cd\u65b0\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u6574\u5957\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b9a\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":7078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6942"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6942"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6942\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7100,"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6942\/revisions\/7100"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phoenixwise.ca\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}